Are You Not Being Entertained? The Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A major talking point of England's top flight season so far has been the decline of goals scored in open play and the way clubs have been scoring increasingly from set-plays as an alternative.
Looking at scoring methods to the initial 11 matches last season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open-play and 26 more from set-plays and penalties, resulting in 13 fewer overall.
If we look at the broader view, shot attempts sides are producing reveal a staggering 370 fewer in open play than this time previously.
And despite the significant rise in set-piece goals, we've actually seen only two additional attempts generated from these situations excluding spot-kicks, indicating the proficiency sides are at finding ways to convert from set-pieces.
Scoring Rates Tell a Story
Over 300 goals recorded in the first 110 fixtures so far calculates at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, if maintained for all 38 games might be the lowest for since 2020-21, from five seasons ago (2.69).
Yet merely 196 scores scored in open-play equates to 1.78 per game and is on course to be the least for 16 seasons, back in 2009-10 (1.76).
The 2009-10 season is also the unique EPL campaign to witness goals scored more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than the current rate of 0.77 each match (0.79).
Which Sides Are Most Responsible?
When it comes to goals scored from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen the largest decrease, netting just four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.
Outside of Wolves, the Premier League's drop in open play goals is very much a London phenomenon, with five of the city's seven teams netting five or more goals fewer from open play than last season.
In fairness, this is mainly because them scoring many goals at the early stages of last season as opposed to them really struggling to score in open-play this season.
Meanwhile City have recorded the largest rise, with nearly all of their 23 goals so far originating in open play.
Set-Piece Success
Looking at the promoted teams with those that were relegated that they superseded. Play-off champions the Black Cats have recorded three more scores in open play than Southampton managed in their first 11 games en route to the drop the previous campaign.
When it comes to goals scored from set-pieces (excluding penalties), the Gunners and the Blues have recorded the biggest increase, with each team making up for the five fewer scores that they've produced in open-play with an equal amount from set-pieces.
Man United have recorded twice as many goals from set-plays as they did in the 11 games last season before their coach took over, while the Black Cats once more are better at netting than the similar-colored team they superseded.
City appear not to have received the message about increasing scoring from set-plays, since they've netted three fewer than the previous campaign, similar to Nottingham Forest, though this could be because of the tactical shift they're working to install.
General Tendencies
Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – are this term's top trend-setters by scoring fewer scores from open play and more from set-plays, while Manchester City stand as the only side to buck the trend to date by performing the complete reverse.
It will be interesting to see if sides persist to depend greatly on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they find again their all-round creativity and commence converting increased totals in open play also.
