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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.