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Amid the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.